Park’s senior economist suspects around 3.94 pc nationwide

Lahore [Pakistan]May 29 (ANI): Leading Pakistani economists question the country’s provisional estimate of the country’s GDP growth rate of 3.94% and the government’s 2.9% GDP growth approved by the federal cabinet, headed by Imran Khan. He said he would decline the rate estimate. Month.

In April, the Federal Cabinet approved the medium-term fiscal strategy document and shared it with the International Monetary Fund (IMF). In this treaty, the government estimated GDP growth at 2.9% for the current fiscal year.

“But in the space of two weeks, it suddenly rose to 3.94 pc”, wonders the former Minister of Finance, Dr Hafeez Pasha.

“Pakistani state-owned banks’ estimates ranged from 2.8% to 3%, while IMF and World Bank estimates ranged from around 2% to 1.5%, respectively,” he said.

In a May 21 tweet, Prime Minister Imran Khan called the CNA’s estimated 3.94% GDP growth a success of the government’s economic policy that has successfully brought the COVID-19 pandemic under control. The V-shaped recovery is balanced between the three main sectors of agriculture and industrial services, ”Khan’s tweet read, Dawn reported.

In addition, Dr Sajid Amin Javeid, researcher and head of the policy solutions laboratory at the Institute for Sustainable Development Policy, specializes in the growth of 3.94% of GDP, although weak base effects are taken into account. He continues to say that he has taken the opinions of the house into account. surprise.

“This is almost double the IMF’s highest forecast of 2%, revised from the original 1.5% forecast. Although there were discussions of growth rates slightly higher than the IMF forecast, the forecast was between 2% and 2.5% at most, mainly due to good agricultural production due to a good harvest. . I don’t think the manufacturing industry and other sectors have changed much since the IMF revised the estimates. So there was a third wave that was again forced into economic activity restricted by the pandemic. “He explained.

While discussing how realistic this number is, he said that objective assessment depends on having access to information on how this number was reached and what data was used. And how does this data differ from the data provided or collected at the IMF? What has changed so much that the IMF hasn’t been scheduled since April 2021? Estimates? Missing What substitution variables are used for the data you have? Certainly, there are surprises in the sector estimates, ”he said. Overall, this number is compared to current economic trends and available information. Seems to be overrated. “I think that number will be lowered considerably later. For me, the revised growth rate could be between 2pc and 2.5pc. It is the highest, ”he insisted.

“GDP growth for fiscal 2019 has been revised downward from 3.3% to 1.9%. Every government tends to come up with the highest possible growth rate first to show its performance. People in general Ignore revised quotes. The practice takes place here, ”he said.

Naved Ahmad also said that the GDP growth rate of 3.94 pc was unrealistic and should have been 3.5 pc. Economist Pervis Taheel also said the growth rate of 3.94% was unrealistic and that the independent operation of the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) is a transparent projection of growth.

He said growth is expected to be around 3 percent if growth is allowed in various areas such as agriculture and industry. “But I think it went down to around 4% and I think 1% was added by force,” he said.

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